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With the new budget crafted by a Republican Congress and signed into law by President Clinton, we approach what appears to be, at long last, a balanced budget.

However, having watched the same thing almost occur in the late 1980s, I have my doubts about whether it will actually happen. For example, this year's deficit will come in at a paltry $37 billion. Yes, that's right. After two years of a Republican Congress we've gone from deficits over $150 billion to $37 billion, after Bill Clinton claimed that $200 billion deficits were all we should expect as far as the eye could see. Of course, he's changed his tune since the Republicans won Congress.

So how much is $37 billion in today's economy? Well, it's a mere 2.5% of the current budget, an even more miniscule 0.7% of today's economy. Why, Bill Gates could pay off that deficit all by himself. (Perish the thought, though, of a private citizen being made to pay for public borrowing and not being compensated!)

Okay, so all we do is freeze spending next year and the budget balances, right?! Four years ahead of schedule!?

Not quite. You see, everyone has their own little pet projects that had to be added to the budget before they would agree to one that balances. Then there are the inevitable concessions to these additions that pile on more spending. You see, the deficit is going to go up next year.

We've been here before, in 1989. After years of falling deficits and the passage of Gramm-Rudman, mandating across-the-board cuts if a deficit was running, the deficit was below 3% of GDP. So what happened? A Democrat Congress and President Bush signed "a budget deal" that would "fix the deficit". The result? The deficit doubled. Not just because of the deal, mind you, there were also some unusual expenses, like the end of the S&L bailout, finally fixing the problems of the 1970s for that industry after a decade of false starts.

But that is the point. When you are this close to balancing the budget, you don't ease off, taking one last dip at the trough. You never know when another Persian Gulf War or financial crisis will cause government spending to jump again.

As much as I like the idea of a balanced budget, I've been fooled before. I'll wait until it actually happens to celebrate. After all, fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, I might as well vote Democrat.

Update (winter, 2003): since this piece was written we did achieve a balanced budget. Everyone dipped into the pool of "excess" money and sure enough, another Persian Gulf War is upon us. The balanced budget is only a memory, and will be for at least another five years.

...we approach what appears to be, at long last, a balanced budget.

After two years of a Republican Congress we've gone from deficits over $150 billion to $37 billion...

We've been here before, in 1989. After years of falling deficits and the passage of Gramm-Rudman, mandating across-the-board cuts if a deficit was running, the deficit was below 3% of GDP.

You never know when another Persian Gulf War or financial crisis will cause government spending to jump again.