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The Economy: It Just Keeps Growing and Growing

Written April 7th, 2004

The Democrat have been tied to a losing strategy ever since they decided to run on economic issues. (The current situation in Iraq may make them wish they had not relied on the old "lose this war now!" strategy, instead.) Undaunted by good economic news, the Democrats continue to play harpy in the face of an economic expansion that just keeps getting better.

As the figures from The Bureau of Economic Analysis show, the expansion has now entered its third year under President Bush.

Year - QuarterChange in GDP
2001 - Q42.7%
2002 - Q15.0%
2002 - Q21.3%
2002 - Q34.0%
2002 - Q41.4%
2003 - Q11.4%
2003 - Q23.1%
2003 - Q38.2%
2003 - Q44.1%
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Source: BEA (Select images to view full size version.)
Current Expansion

Jobs have been an area where Democrats have tried to muddy the water. Focusing solely on one measure, the payroll survey, Democrats are hoping to distort the job situation just as they did in 1992 by focusing on "average hourly wages" instead of actual incomes. As the tables below demonstrate, the job situation is much better than Democrats will admit. In fact, the job situation today is much the same as it was in the mid-1990s when President Clinton ran claiming "the best economy in fifty years".

Year Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Total Number Employed Not in Labor Force, Want Job
199366.3% 6.9%120,259,000NA
199466.6% 6.1%123.060,0006,218,000
199566.6% 5.6%124,900,0005,670,000
199666.8% 5.4%126,708,0005,451,000
199767.1% 4.9%129,558,0004,941,000
199867.1% 4.5%131,463,0004,812,000
199967.1% 4.2%133,488,0004,568,000
200067.1% 4.0%136,891,0004,413,000
200166.8% 4.7%136,933,0004,590,000
200266.6% 5.8%136,485,0004,677,000
200366.2% 6.0%137.736,0004,726,000
2004 (YTD)66.0% 5.6%138,388,0004,779,000
Select to view larger image
Select to view larger image
Source: BLS (Select images to view full size version.)
Job Statistics
As you can see from the facts in the table above, there are over one million more Americans at work in 2004 than there were in 2001. Liberals are still trying to deceive you with talk about "3 million jobs lost" but the facts do not support their allegations. Americans may not be working for corporations (that is, on someone's "payroll") but they are indeed working! The number of people "not in the labor force", and thus not in the unemployment numbers is below five million, which is below the 1998 level and only slightly higher than the 1999 level. Clearly America has not suffered a vast net job loss as Democrats have claimed.

Personal income has been increasing along with the increase in the number of Americans at work. And not only has it steadily increased over the past two years, recent quarters show a much higher increase than earlier quarters. This is yet more proof that the economic expansion is growing in both duration and scope. Every day more and more Americans are benefiting from President Bush's economic programs.

Year - QuarterChange in Personal Income
2002 - Q31.4%
2002 - Q41.7%
2003 - Q13.0%
2003 - Q24.4%
2003 - Q34.9%
2003 - Q44.7%
Select to view larger image
Source: BEA (Select images to view full size version.)
Personal Income

Finally, the index of leading economic indicators has been going up steadily over the past couple of years. As the Conference Board details in their March 18th press release:

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent and the lagging index also held steady in February.
  • The leading index was unchanged in February, but there were also upward revisions to previous months. As a result, the leading index is increasing at a 3.0 to 4.0 percent annual rate, and this growth continues to be widespread.
  • The coincident index increased again in February, and has now grown at about a 2.0 percent annual rate from its most recent low in April 2003. The growth in the coincident index also has been widespread over the last six months (production, sales, income, and employment).
  • The upturn in the leading index since March 2003 has been signaling stronger economic growth, and real GDP growth picked up to a 6.1 percent annual rate during the second half of 2003. While the growth rate of the leading index has slowed somewhat in recent months, it is still signaling relatively strong economic growth in the near term.
With even the payroll job creation study show large increases in job creation, the Democrats are faced with the choice of admitting they have been wrong about the economy for the past three years or continuing to lie about it. Given the past history of Democrats, I'm betting that their choice will be to continue to lie to America in an attempt to gain political power.

The Democrat have been tied to a losing strategy ever since they decided to run on economic issues.



The job situation today is much the same as it was in the mid-1990s.


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This is yet more proof that the economic expansion is growing in both duration and scope.



Every day more and more Americans are benefiting from President Bush's economic programs.




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